IPMERC Futures
ICT, all roles, Netherlands.
Divergent / 2026-Q3
The evidence points both ways and is not averaged. Both readings are below, with their weights.
Confidence A29 signals, 18 measured here9 papers6 sourcesthis quarter
Three or more papers, two or more sources, and at least one figure measured on this exact market.
The evidence on demand points both ways. On the movement, 0.89 of weight says harder against 2.02 saying easier.
The five readings
Movement is how the measurement shifted between two periods. Level is where it sits against a named benchmark. Plus always means harder to hire.
Demanddivergentmovement -0.52level +0.30weight 3.65
Supplymovement -0.86level +0.13weight 1.86
Frictionmovement -0.35level +0.40weight 1.84
Costmovement +0.90level +0.39weight 0.22
Structuredivergentmovement +0.40level +0.24weight 2.96
Every signal, with its weight
Source times age times distance gives the weight. A figure borrowed from a wider market still counts, but it never overrules one measured here.
Demand
36,000 more people in IT occupations year on year, the strongest of any occupation groupCBS, 2026-Q21.00 × 0.89 × 1.00 = 0.891
sector K vacancy rate 8.2% to 5.1%, against 4.1% across the economyEurostat, 2026-Q21.00 × 0.89 × 1.00 = 0.891
IT vacancies fell 13% in 2024, to about 18,800 open in the fourth quarter of 2025UWV, 2025-Q40.80 × 0.71 × 1.00 = 0.566
information and communication vacancy rate 8.2% to 5.1%Eurostat, 2025-Q21.00 × 0.56 × 1.00 = 0.561
15.3% of Dutch enterprises tried to recruit an ICT specialist, against 9.55% in the EUEurostat, 20241.00 × 0.45 × 1.00 = 0.445
Dutch all-sector vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.1%, against 1.9% in the EUEurostat, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.178
vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.2% across the whole economyEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.112
Supply
IT workers on unemployment benefit up 22% in 2024, about 6,200 in February 2026UWV, 2026-020.80 × 0.79 × 1.00 = 0.635
ICT graduates 3,101 in 2015 to 8,710 in 2024, a rise of 181%Eurostat, 20241.00 × 0.45 × 1.00 = 0.445
labour reserve 9.3% against registered unemployment of 3.2%Eurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 = 0.283
unused part-time hours 4.0% of the extended labour force, against 2.3% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.141
372,000 part-timers wanting more hours against 297,000 unemployedEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 0.071
ICT is 4.6% of Dutch graduates, against 8.3% in Finland and 2.6% in BelgiumEurostat, 20231.00 × 0.28 × 1.00 × 0.50 = 0.140
part-timers want 2 to 2.5 extra hours a week, worth 3 to 4% of labour volumeDNB, 2024, borrowed0.80 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.143
Friction
72% of candidates drop out at the first interviewIPMERC partner data, 2026-080.60 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.600
47 days from intake to placement on average, median 39IPMERC partner data, 2026-080.60 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.50 = 0.300
56% of Dutch firms name too few applications, against 43% in the EUEurostat, 20241.00 × 0.45 × 1.00 = 0.445
51% of Dutch firms name missing ICT skills, against 42% in the EUEurostat, 20241.00 × 0.45 × 1.00 × 0.50 = 0.223
41% of Dutch firms name missing work experience, the same as the EUEurostat, 20241.00 × 0.45 × 1.00 × 0.25 = 0.111
63% of recruiting firms left an ICT vacancy unfilled, against 70% in 2022 and 69% in 2018Eurostat, 20241.00 × 0.45 × 1.00 × 0.13 = 0.056
39% of Dutch firms name salary expectations, against 42% in the EUEurostat, 20241.00 × 0.45 × 1.00 × 0.06 = 0.028
416,000 open vacancies against 366,000 unemployedDNB, 2023-Q3, borrowed0.80 × 0.25 × 0.40 = 0.080
Cost
labour cost index 113.1 to 143.1, a rise of 26.5% in four yearsEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224
Structure
708,800 ICT specialists, 7.2% of employment, against 5.0% in the EUEurostat, 20251.00 × 0.90 × 1.00 = 0.901
71.0% buy paid cloud services, 29.7% employ an ICT specialistEurostat, 20241.00 × 0.79 × 1.00 = 0.785
enrolment in IT courses is falling, visible in graduate numbers from about 2027ING, 20300.50 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.500
1.87m of 9.42m Dutch workers are 55 to 64, or 19.9%, against 20.5% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361
labour force growth of about 100,000 a year falls to a standstill after 2030DNB, 2040, borrowed0.80 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.320
29% of workers on permanent contracts trained, against 57% on flexible contractsDNB, 2022, borrowed0.80 × 0.59 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.095
What is missing
All five readings have evidence behind them.