IPMERC Futures
Cloud and infrastructure, Netherlands.
Divergent / 2026-Q3
The evidence points both ways and is not averaged. Both readings are below, with their weights.
Confidence B34 signals, 5 measured here10 papers7 sourcesthis quarter
Two or more papers, and at least one figure measured on this exact market.
Demand is tightening while friction is easing. The two are not averaged.
The five readings
Movement is how the measurement shifted between two periods. Level is where it sits against a named benchmark. Plus always means harder to hire.
Demandmovement +0.40level +0.63weight 2.48
Supplymovement -0.65level -0.32weight 1.13
Frictionmovement -0.35level +0.40weight 1.19
Costmovement -0.55level +0.39weight 0.82
Structuremovement +0.77level +0.80weight 2.55
Every signal, with its weight
Source times age times distance gives the weight. A figure borrowed from a wider market still counts, but it never overrules one measured here.
Demand
demand shifting toward cloud, security, data and AI profilesING, 2026-Q20.50 × 0.89 × 1.00 = 0.445
52.5% of firms that switched provider used an intermediaryACM, 2025-010.80 × 0.50 × 1.00 = 0.400
36,000 more people in IT occupations year on year, the strongest of any occupation groupCBS, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 = 0.356
sector K vacancy rate 8.2% to 5.1%, against 4.1% across the economyEurostat, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 = 0.356
Dutch all-sector vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.1%, against 1.9% in the EUEurostat, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.178
IT vacancies fell 13% in 2024, to about 18,800 open in the fourth quarter of 2025UWV, 2025-Q4, borrowed0.80 × 0.71 × 0.40 = 0.226
vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.2% across the whole economyEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224
information and communication vacancy rate 8.2% to 5.1%Eurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.112
15.3% of Dutch enterprises tried to recruit an ICT specialist, against 9.55% in the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.178
Supply
labour reserve 9.3% against registered unemployment of 3.2%Eurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 = 0.283
unused part-time hours 4.0% of the extended labour force, against 2.3% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.141
372,000 part-timers wanting more hours against 297,000 unemployedEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 0.071
IT workers on unemployment benefit up 22% in 2024, about 6,200 in February 2026UWV, 2026-02, borrowed0.80 × 0.79 × 0.40 = 0.254
ICT graduates 3,101 in 2015 to 8,710 in 2024, a rise of 181%Eurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.178
part-timers want 2 to 2.5 extra hours a week, worth 3 to 4% of labour volumeDNB, 2024, borrowed0.80 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.143
ICT is 4.6% of Dutch graduates, against 8.3% in Finland and 2.6% in BelgiumEurostat, 2023, borrowed1.00 × 0.28 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.056
Friction
52 of 172 attempts to switch cloud provider failed, or 30.2%ACM, 2025-010.80 × 0.50 × 1.00 = 0.400
72% of candidates drop out at the first interviewIPMERC partner data, 2026-08, borrowed0.60 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.240
47 days from intake to placement on average, median 39IPMERC partner data, 2026-08, borrowed0.60 × 1.00 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.120
56% of Dutch firms name too few applications, against 43% in the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.178
51% of Dutch firms name missing ICT skills, against 42% in the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.089
41% of Dutch firms name missing work experience, the same as the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 0.045
63% of recruiting firms left an ICT vacancy unfilled, against 70% in 2022 and 69% in 2018Eurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 × 0.13 = 0.022
39% of Dutch firms name salary expectations, against 42% in the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 × 0.06 = 0.011
416,000 open vacancies against 366,000 unemployedDNB, 2023-Q3, borrowed0.80 × 0.25 × 0.40 = 0.080
Cost
median gross monthly salary EUR 6,364 to EUR 5,787IPMERC partner data, 2026-080.60 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.600
labour cost index 113.1 to 143.1, a rise of 26.5% in four yearsEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224
Structure
55.4% of Dutch enterprises host a database or files with a provider, against 24.0% in the EUEurostat, 20251.00 × 0.90 × 1.00 = 0.901
1.87m of 9.42m Dutch workers are 55 to 64, or 19.9%, against 20.5% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361
708,800 ICT specialists, 7.2% of employment, against 5.0% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361
labour force growth of about 100,000 a year falls to a standstill after 2030DNB, 2040, borrowed0.80 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.320
71.0% buy paid cloud services, 29.7% employ an ICT specialistEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.79 × 0.40 = 0.314
enrolment in IT courses is falling, visible in graduate numbers from about 2027ING, 2030, borrowed0.50 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.200
29% of workers on permanent contracts trained, against 57% on flexible contractsDNB, 2022, borrowed0.80 × 0.59 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.095
What is missing
All five readings have evidence behind them.