IPMERC Futures

Construction trades, Netherlands.

Persistently tight / 2026-Q3

The market sits well above its benchmark and is not moving. It was this tight three years ago.

Confidence C13 signals, 2 measured here7 papers3 sourcesthis quarter

Enough weight to report a direction, but thin. Treat it as an indication.

The five readings

Movement is how the measurement shifted between two periods. Level is where it sits against a named benchmark. Plus always means harder to hire.

Demandmovement -0.04level +1.00weight 1.03

Supplymovement +0.01level -0.36weight 0.64

Frictionmovement -level +0.14weight 0.08

Costmovement +0.90level +0.39weight 0.22

Structuremovement +0.38level +0.75weight 1.48

Source times age times distance gives the weight. A figure borrowed from a wider market still counts, but it never overrules one measured here.

Demand

construction vacancy rate 7.5% to 7.4%, against 2.7% in the EUEurostat, 2025-Q21.00 × 0.56 × 1.00 = 0.561

Dutch all-sector vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.1%, against 1.9% in the EUEurostat, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 = 0.356

vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.2% across the whole economyEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.112

Supply

labour reserve 9.3% against registered unemployment of 3.2%Eurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 = 0.283

unused part-time hours 4.0% of the extended labour force, against 2.3% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.141

372,000 part-timers wanting more hours against 297,000 unemployedEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 0.071

part-timers want 2 to 2.5 extra hours a week, worth 3 to 4% of labour volumeDNB, 2024, borrowed0.80 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.143

Friction

416,000 open vacancies against 366,000 unemployedDNB, 2023-Q3, borrowed0.80 × 0.25 × 0.40 = 0.080

Cost

labour cost index 113.1 to 143.1, a rise of 26.5% in four yearsEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224

Structure

75,000 full-time workers needed by 2029, of which about 25,000 must be career switchersEIB, 20290.70 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.700

1.87m of 9.42m Dutch workers are 55 to 64, or 19.9%, against 20.5% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361

labour force growth of about 100,000 a year falls to a standstill after 2030DNB, 2040, borrowed0.80 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.320

29% of workers on permanent contracts trained, against 57% on flexible contractsDNB, 2022, borrowed0.80 × 0.59 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.095

All five readings have evidence behind them.