IPMERC Futures

Energy and grid, Netherlands.

2026-Q3

Nothing published so far says whether hiring here is getting harder or easier.

Confidence C12 signals, 1 measured here7 papers3 sourcesthis quarter

Enough weight to report a direction, but thin. Treat it as an indication.

supply and structure have evidence, demand and friction do not.

The five readings

Movement is how the measurement shifted between two periods. Level is where it sits against a named benchmark. Plus always means harder to hire.

Demandmovement -0.39level +0.83weight 0.58

Supplymovement +0.01level -0.36weight 0.64

Frictionmovement -level +0.14weight 0.08

Costmovement +0.90level +0.39weight 0.22

Structuremovement +1.00level +0.52weight 1.48

Source times age times distance gives the weight. A figure borrowed from a wider market still counts, but it never overrules one measured here.

Demand

Dutch all-sector vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.1%, against 1.9% in the EUEurostat, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 = 0.356

vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.2% across the whole economyEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224

Supply

labour reserve 9.3% against registered unemployment of 3.2%Eurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 = 0.283

unused part-time hours 4.0% of the extended labour force, against 2.3% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.141

372,000 part-timers wanting more hours against 297,000 unemployedEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 0.071

part-timers want 2 to 2.5 extra hours a week, worth 3 to 4% of labour volumeDNB, 2024, borrowed0.80 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.143

Friction

416,000 open vacancies against 366,000 unemployedDNB, 2023-Q3, borrowed0.80 × 0.25 × 0.40 = 0.080

Cost

labour cost index 113.1 to 143.1, a rise of 26.5% in four yearsEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224

Structure

28,000 technicians needed by 2029, 23,000 of them at contractorsNetbeheer Nederland, 20290.70 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.700

1.87m of 9.42m Dutch workers are 55 to 64, or 19.9%, against 20.5% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361

labour force growth of about 100,000 a year falls to a standstill after 2030DNB, 2040, borrowed0.80 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.320

29% of workers on permanent contracts trained, against 57% on flexible contractsDNB, 2022, borrowed0.80 × 0.59 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.095

All five readings have evidence behind them.