IPMERC Futures
Software engineering, Netherlands.
Easing from a tight base / 2026-Q3
There is more room than there was, and the market is still tighter than its benchmark.
Confidence C31 signals, 2 measured here10 papers6 sourcesthis quarter
Enough weight to report a direction, but thin. Treat it as an indication.
The five readings
Movement is how the measurement shifted between two periods. Level is where it sits against a named benchmark. Plus always means harder to hire.
Demandmovement -0.44level +0.42weight 1.63
Supplymovement -0.65level -0.32weight 1.13
Frictionmovement -0.35level +0.37weight 0.79
Costdivergentmovement +0.28level +0.38weight 1.12
Structuredivergentmovement +0.77level +0.21weight 1.65
Every signal, with its weight
Source times age times distance gives the weight. A figure borrowed from a wider market still counts, but it never overrules one measured here.
Demand
36,000 more people in IT occupations year on year, the strongest of any occupation groupCBS, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 = 0.356
sector K vacancy rate 8.2% to 5.1%, against 4.1% across the economyEurostat, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 = 0.356
Dutch all-sector vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.1%, against 1.9% in the EUEurostat, 2026-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.89 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.178
IT vacancies fell 13% in 2024, to about 18,800 open in the fourth quarter of 2025UWV, 2025-Q4, borrowed0.80 × 0.71 × 0.40 = 0.226
vacancy rate 5.1% to 4.2% across the whole economyEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224
information and communication vacancy rate 8.2% to 5.1%Eurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.112
15.3% of Dutch enterprises tried to recruit an ICT specialist, against 9.55% in the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.178
Supply
labour reserve 9.3% against registered unemployment of 3.2%Eurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 = 0.283
unused part-time hours 4.0% of the extended labour force, against 2.3% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.141
372,000 part-timers wanting more hours against 297,000 unemployedEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.71 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 0.071
IT workers on unemployment benefit up 22% in 2024, about 6,200 in February 2026UWV, 2026-02, borrowed0.80 × 0.79 × 0.40 = 0.254
ICT graduates 3,101 in 2015 to 8,710 in 2024, a rise of 181%Eurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.178
part-timers want 2 to 2.5 extra hours a week, worth 3 to 4% of labour volumeDNB, 2024, borrowed0.80 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.143
ICT is 4.6% of Dutch graduates, against 8.3% in Finland and 2.6% in BelgiumEurostat, 2023, borrowed1.00 × 0.28 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.056
Friction
72% of candidates drop out at the first interviewIPMERC partner data, 2026-08, borrowed0.60 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.240
47 days from intake to placement on average, median 39IPMERC partner data, 2026-08, borrowed0.60 × 1.00 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.120
56% of Dutch firms name too few applications, against 43% in the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 = 0.178
51% of Dutch firms name missing ICT skills, against 42% in the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.089
41% of Dutch firms name missing work experience, the same as the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 0.045
63% of recruiting firms left an ICT vacancy unfilled, against 70% in 2022 and 69% in 2018Eurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 × 0.13 = 0.022
39% of Dutch firms name salary expectations, against 42% in the EUEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.45 × 0.40 × 0.06 = 0.011
416,000 open vacancies against 366,000 unemployedDNB, 2023-Q3, borrowed0.80 × 0.25 × 0.40 = 0.080
Cost
median gross monthly salary for Java roles EUR 5,192 to EUR 5,800IPMERC partner data, 2026-080.60 × 1.00 × 1.00 = 0.600
architecture median EUR 7,800, the highest of the twelve marketsIPMERC partner data, 2026-080.60 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.50 = 0.300
labour cost index 113.1 to 143.1, a rise of 26.5% in four yearsEurostat, 2025-Q2, borrowed1.00 × 0.56 × 0.40 = 0.224
Structure
1.87m of 9.42m Dutch workers are 55 to 64, or 19.9%, against 20.5% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361
708,800 ICT specialists, 7.2% of employment, against 5.0% in the EUEurostat, 2025, borrowed1.00 × 0.90 × 0.40 = 0.361
labour force growth of about 100,000 a year falls to a standstill after 2030DNB, 2040, borrowed0.80 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.320
71.0% buy paid cloud services, 29.7% employ an ICT specialistEurostat, 2024, borrowed1.00 × 0.79 × 0.40 = 0.314
enrolment in IT courses is falling, visible in graduate numbers from about 2027ING, 2030, borrowed0.50 × 1.00 × 0.40 = 0.200
29% of workers on permanent contracts trained, against 57% on flexible contractsDNB, 2022, borrowed0.80 × 0.59 × 0.40 × 0.50 = 0.095
What is missing
All five readings have evidence behind them.