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Healthcare: the deepest sectoral data in the country, and the sector with the most replacement demand.
Construction needs 75,000 new full-time workers between 2026 and 2029, of which education can supply roughly 50,000 and 25,000 must come from lateral entry. Grid operators need 28,000 technicians by 2029, 23,000 of them at contractors. Healthcare projects a shortfall of 155,000 by 2032, against 37,000 in 2021. These are the three sectors where the vacancy rate barely fell after 2022.
Between mid-2022 and mid-2025 the Dutch vacancy rate fell from 5.1% to 4.2%. That average hides the real story. In ICT the rate dropped from 8.2% to 5.1%, in trade and hospitality from 6.6% to 4.7%. In construction it went from 7.5% to 7.4%, and in healthcare from 4.4% to 4.3%. Two sectors barely cooled at all, and they are exactly the sectors where production cannot be postponed or automated.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, 34 of the 93 scored Dutch occupation groups were tight and 56 very tight; 2 were average and 1 was loose. For 32 of the 112 groups, ROA forecasts further tightening to 2030. What sets those groups apart is rarely job growth and usually departure: on average 2.8% of workers must be replaced each year, among butchers 8.1%, the highest of all occupation groups, and among advisers in marketing, public relations, and sales 1.1%. Butchers see almost no job growth and stay tight anyway; the advisers ease slightly. Representatives and buyers shrink by 1,900 workers and still stay on the tight side. The three scored ICT groups, together 518,400 workers, were all very tight at the end of 2024 and all ease slightly to 2030; for ICT user support that was already visible in the third quarter of 2025. For five technical occupation groups, the forecast easing was not yet visible in the Spanningsindicator in that same quarter.
