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IPMERC Research

Forecasts

2 papers

What the labour market looks like in 2030 and 2035: expansion demand, replacement demand, and the forecasts they rest on.

Who leaves decides the shortage

August 2026

7 min read

In the fourth quarter of 2024, 34 of the 93 scored Dutch occupation groups were tight and 56 very tight; 2 were average and 1 was loose. For 32 of the 112 groups, ROA forecasts further tightening to 2030. What sets those groups apart is rarely job growth and usually departure: on average 2.8% of workers must be replaced each year, among butchers 8.1%, the highest of all occupation groups, and among advisers in marketing, public relations, and sales 1.1%. Butchers see almost no job growth and stay tight anyway; the advisers ease slightly. Representatives and buyers shrink by 1,900 workers and still stay on the tight side. The three scored ICT groups, together 518,400 workers, were all very tight at the end of 2024 and all ease slightly to 2030; for ICT user support that was already visible in the third quarter of 2025. For five technical occupation groups, the forecast easing was not yet visible in the Spanningsindicator in that same quarter.

The European outlook for the Dutch labour market to 2035 confirms what the replacement figures already showed, and extends it a decade. Of all expected job openings between 2022 and 2035, 68% stem from replacing departing workers; among technicians and associate professionals it is 91%. Professionals account for 44% of all openings and 72% of openings require high qualifications, some 12 points above the EU average. The Dutch labour force aged 55 and over grows 16% to 2035, against just under 10% in the EU.