In the fourth quarter of 2024, 34 of the 93 scored Dutch occupation groups were tight and 56 very tight; 2 were average and 1 was loose. For 32 of the 112 groups, ROA forecasts further tightening to 2030. What sets those groups apart is rarely job growth and usually departure: on average 2.8% of workers must be replaced each year, among butchers 8.1%, the highest of all occupation groups, and among advisers in marketing, public relations, and sales 1.1%. Butchers see almost no job growth and stay tight anyway; the advisers ease slightly. Representatives and buyers shrink by 1,900 workers and still stay on the tight side. The three scored ICT groups, together 518,400 workers, were all very tight at the end of 2024 and all ease slightly to 2030; for ICT user support that was already visible in the third quarter of 2025. For five technical occupation groups, the forecast easing was not yet visible in the Spanningsindicator in that same quarter.
Replacement demand
2 papers
Roles that refill because people retire, not because the work grows. The largest source of openings in most occupations.
Nowhere in the EU does working life last as long as in the Netherlands: 44.0 expected years in 2025, against 43.4 in Sweden and 37.5 on average in the EU. More striking is the pace at which it happened. In 2000 the Netherlands stood at 35.5 years; 8.5 years were added in 25 years, driven by women's labour participation and later retirement. For replacement demand this is the softest cushion there is: people keep working longer. But the cushion is largely used up, because a working life can hardly be stretched much further.