In the fourth quarter of 2024, 34 of the 93 scored Dutch occupation groups were tight and 56 very tight; 2 were average and 1 was loose. For 32 of the 112 groups, ROA forecasts further tightening to 2030. What sets those groups apart is rarely job growth and usually departure: on average 2.8% of workers must be replaced each year, among butchers 8.1%, the highest of all occupation groups, and among advisers in marketing, public relations, and sales 1.1%. Butchers see almost no job growth and stay tight anyway; the advisers ease slightly. Representatives and buyers shrink by 1,900 workers and still stay on the tight side. The three scored ICT groups, together 518,400 workers, were all very tight at the end of 2024 and all ease slightly to 2030; for ICT user support that was already visible in the third quarter of 2025. For five technical occupation groups, the forecast easing was not yet visible in the Spanningsindicator in that same quarter.
Occupations
2 papers
Shortages by job title rather than by sector: which occupations are short, and which are not.
When Dutch employers were asked in autumn 2025 to name their hardest vacancy, 27% named a technical occupation: fitters, welders, CNC operators, machinists, and engineers. Care and welfare professions followed at 13%. In construction, 71% of vacancies arising over the past 12 months were hard to fill; in manufacturing, 53%. The vacancy rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at 7.0% in construction, 5.0% in professional and technical services, and 4.8% in ICT, against 3.9% for the economy as a whole. The overall market is loosening, the share of hard-to-fill vacancies fell from 53% in 2023 to 45% in 2025, but that is largely an office-job story. In Germany, the ICT vacancy rate dropped to 2.5%. The Dutch technical shortage is not a European inevitability. It is a Dutch profile.